Bumperactive: Make A Custom Bumper Sticker!: Lies, Damn Lies, Statistics & The First Casualty of War
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Lies, Damn Lies, Statistics & The First Casualty of War



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item posted 20:03:19: 09-12-06 by kyle.

The LA Times' Patrick J. McDonnell has done a terrific analyis of the 'noninformation nonfacts' (my quotes) increasingly touted as the benchmarks of success in Iraq. It seems like months ago the official line degenerated to "We're winning. How much we're winning exactly is classified, mind you, but hot damn are we winning! A priceless excerpt from the piece:

During weekly news briefings deep inside barricaded compounds, commanders regularly display slick charts, multicolored bar graphs and PowerPoint presentations, all heralding good news.

"One more indicator that operations are in fact reducing the amount of attacks on civilians is shown here on this graph," Caldwell assured reporters the other day, pointing to a bar chart dutifully placed on an easel by a stone-faced uniformed subordinate. But all the numbers had been carefully scrubbed. They were classified.

"We typically characterize trends in ways that do not divulge raw data," explained a military spokesman, Lt. Col. Barry Johnson.

Commanders have consistently declined to say how many civilians have been killed by U.S. forces, although officials have acknowledged tracking the number. Avoiding the Vietnam-era stigma of "body counts," authorities also refuse to divulge "kill" totals for suspected insurgents.

But Iraq Body Count is doing a creditable job tabulating civilian deaths reported in the media. As of this posting, IBC estimates the number of innocent Iraqi's killed by U.S.-led and insurgent forces at a minimum of 41,860, and a maximum of 46,537.

Of course, hard numbers can obscure the truth just as much as invisible ones. Vietnam was often referred to as "Bob McNamera's War", and the conflict came to be defined by the mathematically-savant Defense Secretary's blind hunger for raw facts and figures. As David Halberstam recounts in his definitive history of the war, The Best and the Brightest:

And memories of him still remain: McNamera in 1962 going to Operation Sunrise, the first of the repopulated villages, the villagers obviously filled with bitterness and hatred, ready, one could tell, to slit the throat of the first available Westerner, and McNamera not picking it up, innocently firing away his questions: How much of this? How much of that? Were they happy here?

So which way do you go in evaluating the success of this thing? If numbers can lie, and no numbers can tell you no truth, how can you tell if we're winning? There's always the anecdotal approach, such as Riverbend's August 5 post on Baghdad Burning:

For me, June marked the first month I don't dare leave the house without a hijab, or headscarf. I don't wear a hijab usually, but it's no longer possible to drive around Baghdad without one. It's just not a good idea. (Take note that when I say 'drive' I actually mean 'sit in the back seat of the car'- I haven't driven for the longest time.) Going around bare-headed in a car or in the street also puts the family members with you in danger. You risk hearing something you don't want to hear and then the father or the brother or cousin or uncle can't just sit by and let it happen. I haven't driven for the longest time. If you're a female, you risk being attacked.

I look at my older clothes- the jeans and t-shirts and colorful skirts- and it's like I'm studying a wardrobe from another country, another lifetime. There was a time, a couple of years ago, when you could more or less wear what you wanted if you weren't going to a public place. If you were going to a friends or relatives house, you could wear trousers and a shirt, or jeans, something you wouldn't ordinarily wear. We don't do that anymore because there's always that risk of getting stopped in the car and checked by one militia or another.

There are no laws that say we have to wear a hijab (yet), but there are the men in head-to-toe black and the turbans, the extremists and fanatics who were liberated by the occupation, and at some point, you tire of the defiance. You no longer want to be seen. I feel like the black or white scarf I fling haphazardly on my head as I walk out the door makes me invisible to a certain degree- it's easier to blend in with the masses shrouded in black. If you're a female, you don't want the attention- you don't want it from Iraqi police, you don't want it from the black-clad militia man, you don't want it from the American soldier. You don't want to be noticed or seen.

I have nothing against the hijab, of course, as long as it is being worn by choice. Many of my relatives and friends wear a headscarf. Most of them began wearing it after the war. It started out as a way to avoid trouble and undue attention, and now they just keep it on because it makes no sense to take it off. What is happening to the country?

What does your gut tell you? How is Operation Iraqi Freedom going?


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