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Florida, we hardly knew ya.
Bush-Edwards '04 ???
Zogby asks an intriguing parlor game question: Could the Bush-Kerry contest end in a tie? Assuming the candidates otherwise win their expected states, but....
However, if two other states, Missouri, which now narrowly favors Mr. Bush, and Minnesota, which currently favors Mr. Kerry, were to flip, we would have a 269-269 tie, and the election would be thrown to the U.S. House of Representatives.
"There are lots of other alternate scenarios that are equally plausible," says Zogby. If a tie happens, the House picks the president and the Senate picks the veep, cf. the 12th Amendment. The House is Republican City, but check this out: The Senate is split 51-47 for the Republicans, with Jim Jeffords a Democrat-leaning independent. Ergo, if the Dems pick up three, seats.... a Democrat-controlled Senate picks Bush's Number Two in an electoral tie.
The GOP's vulnerable in five Senate races: Alaska, Colorado, Illinois, Oklahoma and perhaps Pennsylvania. Mark down Illinois as a definite loss 'cause Alan Keyes is insane, so the Dems really need two of four. They'd still have to hang on to the seats of retiring incumbents in five southern states that voted Bush in 2000, however. It seems unlikely that, if the Dems can keep those seats and win three more, the top-of-the ticket race will be a tie. Still... things almost as strange have happened. Here's a breakdown of the "showdown states" that could create a presidential tie in '04:
| Arkansas: | In 2000, voted Bush 51%, Gore 46% |
| Florida: | Bush 48%, Kerry 46%, Aug. 20-22 tracking poll |
| Minnesota: | Bush 45%, Kerry 45%, Sept 11-14 tracking poll |
| Missouri: | Bush 55%, Kerry 41%, Sept 3-6 tracking poll |
| Nevada: | In 2000, voted Bush 50%, Gore 46% |
| W. Virginia: | In 2000, voted Bush 52%, Gore 44% |
Among other possible scenarios that could lead to a tie, Bush wins Florida and Minnesota, Kerry wins Arkansas and Missouri. Or, Bush wins Arkansas and Florida and Kerry wins West Virginia and Nevada. Assumes states otherwise go the same way as 2000. (Gore won Florida, strewth.)
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